After spending most of the year as one of Wall Street's darlings, Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) has sputtered as of late. A YouTube video of burning Model S and a broker downgrade halted the electric-vehicle (EV) maker's momentum as the stock was approaching two-bills ($200).
TSLA will have a chance to reverse course and super-charge its stock price next Tuesday. The NASDAQ 100 member will post its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2013, after market close on Tuesday, November 5, 2013. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release via Marketwire containing a link to the third quarter 2013 Shareholder Letter, available on the company website. Tesla management will hold a live question & answer webcast at 2:30pm Pacific Standard Time (5:30pm Eastern Standard Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
Wall Street anticipates that the green consumer goods company will make a profit of $0.11 per share for the quarter. iStock expects TSLA to top Wall Street's consensus number. The iEstimate is $0.14, a three cent bullish surprise.
Tesla Motors develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and electric vehicle powertrain components. The company also provides services for the development of electric powertrain systems and components, and sells electric powertrain components to other automotive manufacturers. It markets and sells its vehicles through Tesla stores, as well as over the Internet.
There is a ton of speculation on the web based on VIN numbers, a battery order from Panasonic, and various other clues. We'll run through a few scenarios and see if we can create an iStock estimate for how many Model S cars Tesla sold in July, August and September in total.
Our first stop will be Google Trends. United States search volume intensity for the keyword "Model S" increased 7.5% in the third quarter relative to the second quarter. According to Q2's 10-Q, Tesla sold a little more than 5,150 Model S EVs in t! he quarter. Simple math says 7.5% more than 5,150 is 5,536 cars. We'll round up to 5,600.
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iStock calculates an average price of $77,968 in the second quarter. In the 10-Q referenced above, management said, "We expect average selling price to rise significantly during the third quarter of 2013 due to the delivery of European Signature Series vehicles, and a higher mix of 85 kWh cars and other options."
How do you define "significantly"? For us, it starts at 10%. So, we have 5,600 cars and an average selling price of $85,765. And the calculator says $474,815,138 in auto sales for Q3. Add in another $3 million or so for development services and North American revenue could come in around $477.82 million, which is well below the consensus revenue estimate of $534.64 million.
Ahhh, but there is more, Tesla "started European deliveries of the Model S in August." To make up the difference using our hypothetical average selling price, Tesla needs to sell 662 Model Ss in Europe.
Can they get there? How this for a clue. The ibtimes.com reports, "According to Norway's auto association, the OFV, Tesla delivered 616 units last month [September], representing just over 5 percent of all car and light truck sales in the affluent country of 5 million people.
Let's take a look at another tidbit from ibtimes.com, "A contributor to the Tesla's Forum page identified as Craig Froehle updated his Model S VIN data. As of Thursday [October 10, 2013] the data suggest there are at least 25,822 Model S VINs, excluding European identification numbers assigned to cars being produced in Telsa's Holland factory. Tesla has said it has sold 12,550 Model S sedans between June 2012, when the car debuted, to June of this year. This leaves 13,272 units that, according to this customer-provided data, have been assigned VINs."
From July 1 through October ! 10 is 102! days. Divide 13,272 by 102 and we get an average of 130 cars a day. Multiple that by 92 days in Q3 and we arrive at 11,970 Model S orders in the third quarter, which is way too high in our view, but you never know.
On last stab at it; in the 10-Q we referenced seemingly a year-ago, management said they are upping production to "500 vehicles per week," translating into 6,571 EVs in Q3. That seems to be a realistic number in our view considering Google Trends and Tesla's early success in Norway. It would take about 500 sold outside of the US and Norway to hit the target.
If so, we are looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of $540 million in revenue for Q3. Using Wall Street's projected net margin for the quarter, we arrive at EPS close to $0.12, which is more than the consensus by a penny, but less than the $0.14 iEstimate.
Overall: There are plenty of reasons to believe Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) will do a little to a lot better than Wall Street analysts expect. If we have made the correct call, then TSLA could put its recent poor, price performance in the rear-view mirror.
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